Nvidia Fiscal 2028 Revenue Forecast Stuns Wall Street With 70% Growth Pledge

Nvidia (NVDA) set a new benchmark with its fiscal 2028 revenue guidance, pledging 70% growth over fiscal 2027 at a moment when analysts had penciled in roughly 45%, and in doing so it reframed the entire investment case for the stock. The second-quarter results were strong, but the guidance is what matters.

The Fiscal 2028 Revenue Forecast That Moved the Stock

Revenue for the fiscal 2027 second quarter rose 106% year over year to $96.22 billion, beating the $92.165 billion consensus compiled by LSEG. That beat was real, but the stock’s initial dip after the print suggested the buy-side had priced in an even larger upside on near-term numbers.

What reversed that dip was CFO Colette Kress making clear that any disappointment was a capacity story, not a demand story. Then the fiscal 2028 revenue guidance landed: 70% growth versus fiscal 2027. The read here is straightforward. If the Street had been modeling 45% and management is guiding 70%, estimates are going up materially, and a stock that looked expensive at 45% growth is cheaper than it appeared at 70%.

This is also the first time Nvidia has ever guided a full year in advance. CEO Jensen Huang explained the logic on the call: “Even though our demand is much greater than 70%, our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70%. And we’re going to continue to work with our supply chain to increase on that.” The confidence embedded in that statement is the real signal.

On earnings, a distinction matters. Nvidia’s official press release shows GAAP diluted EPS of $2.46, up 128% year over year, while non-GAAP diluted EPS was $2.22, up 120%. Earlier reporting labels $2.46 as “adjusted EPS,” but the issuer document identifies it as the GAAP figure; the non-GAAP number is the lower one. GAAP net income reached $59.688 billion, up 126% year over year. Either way, the earnings power is not in dispute.

AWS Partnership Reveals How Deep the Buildout Goes

Beyond the headline numbers, the expanded AWS deal tells you something about the durability of demand. The joint Nvidia announcement confirmed that Amazon Web Services will deploy 2 million additional Blackwell Ultra, Rubin, and Rubin Ultra GPUs across AWS global infrastructure in fiscal years 2027 and 2028. That number itself is a step-change: at GTC 2026, AWS had announced plans for more than 1 million Nvidia GPUs starting in 2026, then demand exceeded projections and prompted the expanded commitment.

The partnership also includes dedicated data centers for the US government, with a facility housing 100,000 GPUs on secure AWS infrastructure. Kress noted AWS will adopt Nvidia’s full physical AI stack: Omniverse, Cosmos, Isaac, and Jetson to power its warehouse robotics fleet. About Amazon describes the collaboration as building on 16 years of joint innovation. A customer who has been with you for 16 years and is now doubling its GPU commitment is not a customer on the verge of switching.

Data Center segment revenue reached $89.02 billion, up 117% year over year and 18% sequentially, well ahead of the $86.3 billion estimate. Hyperscale sales doubled to $48.7 billion. Kress flagged that cloud industry backlog now exceeds $2 trillion, with capex from the top five hyperscalers expected to reach nearly $800 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027. That is the demand funnel Nvidia is selling into.

The catch, and it is a real one, is gross margin. The fiscal 2027 third-quarter adjusted gross margin guidance of 74% (plus or minus 50 basis points) came in below the FactSet consensus of 75.1%. Kress attributed the compression to rising memory prices and guided the decline to deepen: 71% to 72% in fiscal Q4, recovering to approximately 72% to 73% in fiscal 2028, well short of the Street’s 74.9% expectation for both periods.

Per Nvidia’s 10-Q, reviewed via StockTitan’s SEC filing summary, inventory provisions and excess purchase obligations generated a net unfavorable gross margin impact of 0.8% in the quarter. That is a manageable drag, but the memory price trajectory is a structural headwind for margins that the revenue line will need to keep outrunning. Notably, higher memory prices are a direct tailwind for Micron, which rose more than 3.5% after hours.

Third-quarter revenue guidance of $108 billion (plus or minus 2%) comfortably topped the $104.2 billion LSEG consensus. Capital returns reached a record $26 billion in the quarter via buybacks and dividends, and Kress indicated the company intends to return excess free cash flow beyond the existing 50% commitment going forward, having already returned 60% on a year-to-date basis.

The bull case here rests on a simple proposition: if Nvidia’s fiscal 2028 revenue guidance is credible, and the AWS expansion suggests it is, then the consensus earnings model for next year is too low by a margin that will force a broad revision cycle when markets open. The bear case is margin compression from memory prices proving stickier than Kress implies. Based on the demand evidence on the table, including a 70% growth pledge backed by supply-chain commitments and a doubling of the largest cloud partnership on record, the revenue upside has a more durable foundation than the margin risk. The AWS GPU delivery announcement is not a promise of future demand; it is a signed buildout already underway.

Watch gross margin. If memory prices peak sooner than Kress projects and the Q4 margin floors closer to 72% than 71%, the fiscal 2028 recovery trajectory accelerates and the multiple compression story dissolves. That is the level to track from here.