Nvidia Fiscal 2028 Revenue Forecast Stuns Wall Street With 70% Growth Pledge
Nvidia (NVDA) set a new benchmark with its fiscal 2028 revenue guidance, pledging 70% growth over fiscal 2027...
Nvidia fiscal 2028 guidance landed well above what the market had priced in, and the premarket reaction Thursday told the story: shares of Nvidia (NVDA) rose 5.95% before the open. The question now is whether the supply constraints and margin reset shadowing that guidance can temper the enthusiasm.
What the Fiscal 2028 Guidance Actually Says
CFO Colette Kress guided 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, which runs from February 2027 to January 2028. That number is striking not in isolation but against the backdrop of what analysts had expected: according to Seeking Alpha, the consensus was sitting around 44% growth. A 26-percentage-point beat on a full-year revenue outlook is not a rounding error.
CEO Jensen Huang framed the 70% figure as a floor constrained by supply, not a ceiling set by demand. “Demand is much greater than 70%,” he said, pointing to TSMC’s ongoing capacity limits and persistent shortages of memory chips as the binding constraint. That framing shifts the risk calculus: the bull case is not that demand materializes, it is that supply catches up.
Alongside the fiscal 2028 revenue outlook, Seeking Alpha also reported that Nvidia is resetting its gross margin target to 72%-73%. That is a step down from the 74.9% GAAP and 75.0% non-GAAP gross margins Nvidia posted for the quarter ended April 26, 2026, per the company’s own Q1 fiscal 2027 press release. The margin reset reflects the ramp of Blackwell-architecture products, which carry higher initial production costs. Bulls will call it a temporary dip; bears will note that margin compression at this scale of revenue is still a lot of dollars walking out the door.
The Near-Term Beat and Its Context
The earnings that prompted Thursday’s move were themselves a beat at the top line. Nvidia reported record Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year and up 20% sequentially, according to the Q1 fiscal 2027 press release. The company then guided Q2 fiscal 2027 revenue of approximately $96 billion, clearing the Bloomberg Consensus analyst estimate of $92.29 billion from the same release.
For scale, Nvidia’s full fiscal year ended January 25, 2026 produced $215.9 billion in total revenue, up 65% year over year, per the company’s SEC 10-K filing. A single quarter is now tracking at roughly 44% of that full-year figure.
One data point that matters for the demand-breadth argument: Nvidia’s AI Clouds, Industrial, and Enterprise (ACIE) customers accounted for $40.3 billion in sales during the quarter, up 138% on an annual basis. That figure addresses a persistent skeptic concern that Nvidia’s revenue is dangerously concentrated among a handful of hyperscalers. A customer base diversifying at 138% annual growth rates is harder to dismiss.
Huang’s prepared commentary leaned into that theme. “This time last year, one lab alone was driving the buildout,” he said. “Today, we have a golden age of new AI labs and startups, multiple frontier labs scaling in parallel, a thriving open-model ecosystem and physical AI coming online, with strong momentum across the U.S. and around the world.” Whether that broadening translates into durable revenue diversity or remains concentrated at the project level is a question the next few quarters will need to answer.
Where the Risk Sits on Nvidia Fiscal 2028 Guidance
Two risks bracket the bull case. The first is supply. Nvidia’s guidance explicitly acknowledges that TSMC constraints and memory shortages cap deliverable revenue below stated demand. A supply-constrained growth story is vulnerable to any disruption at the manufacturer level, including geopolitical friction over Taiwan-based production.
The second risk is competitive displacement. Analysts flagged the growing threat to Nvidia’s near-monopoly position from custom semiconductors being built by hyperscalers and AI labs, including OpenAI’s own chip program. Huang’s “inflection point” framing cuts both ways: if AI workloads are truly proliferating beyond the largest labs, more buyers have the scale and incentive to develop alternatives.
Paul Meeks, head of technology research at Freedom Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that he sees no credible slowdown threat “until we get into 2028 earliest.” Siddy Jobe of Econopolis Wealth Management went further, telling CNBC that Nvidia’s earnings results “tell you that the valuation today is cheap” and that there is “plenty, plenty of upside.”
The evidence leans bullish in the near term. A 70% full-year revenue guide against a 44% consensus, a Q2 beat of roughly $3.7 billion above the Bloomberg estimate, and a customer base broadening at triple-digit rates are not the ingredients of a story that breaks down in the next two quarters. The margin reset and the custom-chip threat are real, but both are 2027-2028 problems. For now, the fiscal 2028 guidance has reset the ceiling, and the key watch is whether TSMC capacity catches up fast enough to let Nvidia meet demand it already says exists.
