Every transportation revolution has a moment when everyone forgets to look at the ground below them because the spotlight is focused on the cars for so long. The parade was won by cars. Operators of parking lots, gas stations, and asphalt suppliers became wealthy. The rail tycoons arrived later than the locomotive engineers, and trains had their heyday. The businesses that will actually move the money are still mostly private, mostly unfunded, and mostly waiting, while Joby Aviation, Archer, and a few European contenders are receiving all the airtime in urban air mobility.
I wasn’t impressed by the aircraft when I watched Joby’s demonstration flights fly through the New York skyline last week, transporting executives from JFK to a Manhattan heliport in less than ten minutes. The roof was the location. The prototype of an asset class that doesn’t actually exist on public markets yet is that small cement square with its painted circle and lighting strips. vertiports. For them, there is no ETF. They are not the focus of any significant REIT. And that will most likely have changed in five years.
You can see why from the numbers. The global eVTOL market is expected to reach over a trillion dollars by 2040, according to both Mordor Intelligence and Embention. You still have a transportation layer that needs physical infrastructure in dozens of major cities, even if you heavily discount the hype. Land rights, power capacity for multiple aircraft fast charging, ground handling personnel, weather monitoring, passenger lounges, and integration with current transit are all necessary for each vertiport. All of that is a business. A few of those companies will go public. Some already operate covertly within businesses that no one yet considers to be “aviation.”
The next wave’s early outline is visible. Reuben Brothers and other real estate developers have signed agreements to construct vertiports atop opulent Los Angeles skyscrapers. Utilities and power companies are researching the integration of megawatt-scale charging banks into urban grids. Currently small and supported by venture capital, airspace management software companies like OneSky, AirMap, and Skyports are vying to become the FAA-approved tower controllers of the jet era. Then there is the unglamorous middle layer, which includes rooftop terminal security screening, hangar operators, maintenance providers, and battery-swap logistics. Boring, but necessary. frequently the most lucrative components of any aviation system.
Tesla provides a compelling analogy. The cars were made exciting by the company itself. However, ChargePoint, Blink, EVgo, rare-earth refiners, lithium miners, and substation upgraders emerged as parallel investment stories that didn’t always require picking the winning automaker. There will be a similar split in urban aviation. The manufacturers of aircraft might combine to produce two or three winners. The number of infrastructure providers will increase.
Speaking with professionals in the field gives me the impression that the timing window is smaller than it appears. As early as this year, Dubai intends to start operating commercial eVTOL flights. The FAA’s Type Certification for Joby is nearing completion. The second and third cities advance more quickly once the first has a working network. Cities don’t want to be behind schedule on this. Mayors don’t want to be the ones to explain why nearby metropolitan areas were the first to receive air taxis.
The fact that the public markets have not yet caught up is difficult to ignore. The names of the pure-play infrastructure are still largely confidential. The 2021 wave’s SPACs mostly failed. However, expect initial public offerings (IPOs) from charging network experts, urban airspace software companies, and vertiport developers within five years. Some will be clear. Others will enter covertly through industrial REITs or subsidiaries of already-existing utilities. The headline might be the flying taxi. The trade is the pad it lands on.