Ondas is currently surrounded by an odd energy, similar to that of Palantir or Tesla in 2013 before the hype took hold. ONDS was trading below $1 a year ago. It currently has a market capitalization of more than five billion, is close to eleven, and about one in three of its shares are sold short. You can tell how divided opinions are just by looking at that particular detail. There’s something going on here, but it’s unclear how it will end.
This week, Israel served as the catalyst. In connection with a larger $50 million demining program along the nation’s eastern border, Ondas announced a new $10 million order through its 4M Defense subsidiary. This is the first phase of a $1.7 billion border security build-out, which may sound dry and technical until you read the fine print. Ondas now claims about $80 million in ongoing demining work when combined with a different Israel-Syria initiative. It appears that investors think the pipeline is genuine. It is another matter entirely whether that belief is upheld through execution.
The sheer quantity of irons in the fire is what sets this tale apart. Another Ondas division, Sentrycs, recently secured counter-drone security contracts for the majority of the 2026 FIFA World Cup venues; these contracts serve more as a calling card than as a source of income. As part of a $140 million military engineering program, INDO Earth Moving has an order worth about $68 million. Additionally, ONBERG, a recently established German joint venture with Heidelberg’s HD Advanced Technologies, places Ondas physically within Europe’s defense build-up at a time when governments there are writing larger checks than they have in decades.
When you follow the reasoning, the appeal becomes clear. The picture becomes more complicated when you look through the financials. The stock trades at about 95 times sales, despite revenue of about $50 million per year. Profit margins are extremely negative, at about minus 260%. The business spends money. There is no dividend paid by it. It hasn’t made a profit, and according to management’s own projections, positive EBITDA won’t happen until 2028—a year that, depending on your mood, may seem both realistic and uncomfortably far off.
However, the balance sheet is more robust than the P&L indicates. A company with more than $550 million in cash, little debt, and a current ratio close to 4.8 is not in danger of running out of runway. Though its recent investment in Unusual Machines’ $150 million offering indicates the company is still leaning toward ecosystem plays, for better or worse, Ondas has room to pursue contracts without rushing back to the equity markets.
It’s difficult to ignore the similarities. Similar to EV startups five years ago, drone and defense stocks have emerged as 2026’s speculative ground zero. Some will make it out alive. Most won’t. Ondas has the advantage of having actual contracts with actual counterparties, such as German industrial partners, FIFA, and Israeli defense agencies, which sets it apart from the numerous shell-like names that are used in the industry. But these days, execution is everything. Booking orders is not the same as shipping drones. Press releases are not the same as clearing minefields.
There is a legitimate question that investors continue to ponder despite the commotion. Has the easy money been earned yet? Yes, based on a ten-bagger in twelve months. However, momentum traders feel that the story is still unfinished as the backlog and contracts continue to grow. The tape concurs with them for the time being. The bears are still waiting for the first quarter to be missed, packed and noisy. It is impossible for both sides to be correct. At the very least, it should be instructive to watch this develop over the course of the upcoming year.