These three names hardly ever appeared in the same sentence, much less the same portfolio, for the majority of the previous ten years. The macro purist Stanley Druckenmiller, who once broke the Bank of England with George Soros, now discreetly manages his own finances from an office that most New Yorkers pass by unnoticed. In contrast, Cathie Wood is boisterous, outspoken, and eager to share her trades the same afternoon they are made. Jim Cramer, who yells “buy ratings” in a studio with sound effects, is a television personality first and an investor second. To be honest, it seems a little odd that all three of them ended up on the same three AI stocks at about the same time.
If you’ve been keeping an eye on ARK’s daily trade sheets and 13F filings, the names are not particularly unusual. They are Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon. Some part of me hoped the response would be more intriguing, like a power company no one has heard of or a quiet semiconductor design house in Hsinchu. It isn’t. The dull giants are the focus of the convergence. And I think the point is that it’s boring.
For the past two years, Druckenmiller has eliminated or reduced the positions that once constituted his AI thesis. He sold his investment in Nvidia. Palantir was sold by him. Around that time, he described Nvidia’s valuation as “rich” in an interview with Bloomberg, which was more of a judgment than a criticism. Then, in the third quarter, he changed course, acquiring a smaller stake in Alphabet and more than 437,000 shares in Amazon. As is typical of his methods, he hasn’t given a public explanation for the trade. Seldom does he.
Although Cathie Wood’s route appeared different, it ultimately led to the same destination. ARK was trimming AMD as it rose, acquiring Broadcom and Tempus AI, and purchasing CoreWeave during the decline. She had invested about $72 million in Amazon in a single Friday session by the end of April. If you listen to her tape closely enough, you can see a gradual shift away from pure-play chip suppliers and toward the platforms that directly profit from AI, such as software, clouds, and advertisements. It’s important to note that she continues to make mistakes; the five-year annualized return on her flagship fund is still negative. However, this conviction is exceptionally clear.
Cramer, too? For months, Cramer has been pounding the table on hyperscaler capital expenditures. His argument is primarily based on math; according to Morgan Stanley, the five biggest cloud companies will spend approximately $805 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, with that amount expected to rise to a trillion in 2027. The math is difficult to ignore, regardless of whether you find his style annoying or helpful.
What this overlap implies about the stage of the AI cycle is intriguing. Nvidia was the first stage. The second was the picks and shovels: data center power, chips, and foundries. We’re about to enter a more complicated situation where the question is not who creates the AI but rather who can charge for it on a large scale. Most people are unaware of how quickly Amazon’s ad business and AWS are expanding. Search, Cloud, and YouTube are all being discreetly rewired around Gemini by Alphabet. In addition to Azure and the Office franchise, Microsoft also has a complex relationship with OpenAI. In a market where investors are constantly worried about an AI bubble, these businesses, which were huge before AI and could thrive without it, seem to be more important than they were a year ago.
Of course, it’s possible that all three are just hiding in the same crowded market. Hedge fund correspondence suggests that megacap technology has evolved into a sort of haven, the dull option that allows you to maintain AI exposure without experiencing heart attacks. If that is correct, the convergence is more of a consensus than a signal, and returns are typically harder to find in consensus.
Even so, it’s difficult to ignore how strange it is to see Druckenmiller and Cathie Wood covertly purchasing the same names. They hardly ever exchange portfolios. A year ago, Cramer’s agreement with both of them would have been interpreted as a joke. It now simply says “the trade.”
