In aviation, a certain type of stock story is uncommon. Due to certification cycles, fuel hedges, and protracted union negotiations, the industry typically moves slowly. Therefore, it’s worth stopping when a company like Joby Aviation puts together the kind of run it has—up more than 140% from its lows over the past year and change, beating quarterly revenue estimates by nearly double. particularly since the airline hasn’t yet carried a paying passenger.
The final detail is what keeps the narrative engaging. Joby reported a lower-than-expected loss of $0.14 per share and Q4 revenue of $30.8 million compared to expectations of $16.9 million. The stock began a third consecutive day of gains after rising nearly 2% during overnight trading. All of that is not derived from traditional ticket sales. The majority of it stems from government alliances, the purchase of Blade’s passenger division, and a six-year exclusive in Dubai that is anticipated to launch the company’s first commercial passengers later this year. The inflection point appears to be real, according to investors. It’s another matter entirely whether they arrive early or precisely on time.
You can understand why the certification narrative is so important by taking a tour of the company’s Marina, California, facility. The aircraft are no longer renderings but actual, completed objects. According to CEO JoeBen Bevirt, the company posted what he described as a record 18-point progression on the FAA’s Stage Four, and all of the aircraft Joby intends to use for Type Inspection Authorization testing are already in production. That is the kind of incremental milestone that subtly reduces the risk of the entire investment thesis but rarely makes headlines. People observing the eVTOL space feel that the FAA is actually moving—not at startup speed, but moving—and Joby has been one of the most obvious winners.
The stock is down about 26% so far in 2026, which is concerning when you consider that it was up 62% in 2025. With retail message volume rising 334% in the 24 hours following the earnings release, traders on Stocktwits have been referring to this type of compression following a significant run as an “absolute steal.” The cultural moment is also difficult to ignore. Every venture capital pitch deck used to make fun of air taxis. After SK Telecom introduced Joby’s aircraft to a room full of telecom executives last year, they are now making an appearance at the Mobile World Congress. Even though the general public still finds the idea somewhat ridiculous, something has changed.
Attention should be paid to the risky aspect of the situation. The company anticipates spending between $340 million and $370 million in cash through the first half of 2026, plus an additional $33 million on the Ohio building. Joby’s operating expenses totaled $237.6 million during the quarter. For a pre-revenue commercial business, that is a substantial outlay, and any certification delay or softness in the Dubai launch could swiftly alter the discourse. The recent collapse of a $500 million rescue agreement for Spirit Airlines serves as a reminder of how harsh aviation economics can be, even for well-established carriers.
However, compared to the meme-stock fervor that surrounded previous eVTOL plays, there is a more subdued optimism as this develops. Compared to most, Joby appears closer to the finish line. Whether that lead truly results in something long-lasting will likely be determined over the course of the next 12 months. As of right now, the order book and the chart are pointing in the same direction, which is uncommon.
