Engineers at Archer Aviation are working on an unfinished project somewhere in San Jose, in a hangar that resembles a design studio rather than a factory. In any case, not in a business sense. Their four-passenger electric aircraft, the Midnight, takes off without a runway, hovers briefly, and then glides forward on a grid of tiny rotors. It’s difficult to watch it on video without thinking of the vintage concept drawings from Popular Mechanics in the 1950s; the flying car was supposed to arrive next year, but for some reason it never did. Perhaps this time will be different. And it might not be.
Today, Archer shares are trading at about $5.94, giving the company a market capitalization of about $4.4 billion. That’s not insignificant, but it’s also a small portion of the stock’s value when it peaked over $14 last year. Technically, the theory that made the stock famous—that a thousand dollars today could turn into a hundred thousand if everything goes according to plan—remains relevant. Archer would need to increase its market value beyond $500 billion, which would put it in the vicinity of GE Aerospace, in order to achieve that return. Most likely, not likely. Not possible? Not quite.
One thing is central to the entire thesis. Archer’s type certification must be issued by the Federal Aviation Administration. The company can produce aircraft, hold demonstrations, form alliances with United Airlines and Stellantis, and even construct vertiports in Abu Dhabi until that stamp is delivered, but it is unable to transport any paying passengers. The certification procedure has advanced. Progress has been publicly acknowledged by officials. However, there is no set date and no assurance. It appears that investors anticipate it in 2026 or early 2027. Whether that confidence is in line with reality is still up for debate.
According to a Morgan Stanley research note from 2021, the low-altitude economy could grow to $9 trillion by 2050. These figures are important to optimists. Archer’s potential value would exceed $500 billion even at a 6% market share. In one sentence, that math sums up the whole bull case. Additionally, the math is the kind of thing that scares a risk manager while sounding convincing at a cocktail party. Forecasts from Morgan Stanley have previously been inaccurate. They’ll be mistaken once more. Whether this one is directionally correct is the question.
The rivalry with Joby Aviation continues to give the narrative depth. Joby has more money, a partnership with Toyota that is difficult to overstate, and a certification pitch that is a little more polished. Whether this is a true advantage or not, Archer responds with aggressive commercial deals, a more straightforward aircraft architecture, and a quicker manufacturing ramp in Georgia. Both businesses are losing money. In essence, both are pre-revenue. They are both waiting for a yes or no response from the same federal agency while perched on the same regulatory precipice.
Some longtime aerospace observers believe that this moment is reminiscent of Tesla’s circa-2013 era. There was a lot of skepticism. It was a hand-wavy production. Although it wasn’t widely available, the product did exist. Belief was more important to the stock’s movement than fundamentals. Before the shares behaved like a mood ring, Tesla’s supporters were eventually compensated. In terms of texture, if not industry, Archer’s situation is comparable. Cybertrucks are not the bottleneck; certification is.
The rapid evolution of eVTOL from science fiction to slide deck to near-commercial reality is difficult to ignore. Commercial launch flights are being planned by Dubai. One hundred Midnight aircraft have been pre-ordered by United. Vertiports are being designed in Los Angeles close to Union Station. These commitments aren’t hypothetical. Delivery dates are attached to these contracts. Those partners become anxious if Archer misses the FAA window. The stock is rewrated overnight if Archer clears it, possibly not 100 times, but significantly.
In private, the majority of analysts honestly advise treating Archer as the speculative portion of a portfolio. Not the retirement account. Perhaps a thousand dollars. The kind of wager that, if the timeline holds, could result in something extraordinary and that hurts if it fails but doesn’t change your life. Because the timeline ultimately tells the whole story. The rest is already underway.