The European aerospace leader Airbus is experiencing a period of unusual competitive pressure. Although the company continues to lead its rival in aircraft deliveries, U.S.-based Boeing is positioned to secure more net new orders this year for the first time since 2019. Concurrently, Airbus has revised its annual targets downward, signaling persistent supply chain headwinds.
A Revised Delivery Target and Shifting Order Dynamics
For investors, the most significant recent development is the adjustment to Airbus’s delivery forecast. The company has lowered its full-year 2025 target to approximately 790 commercial aircraft, down from a previous expectation of over 800. This revision stems from quality issues with fuselage sections for the A320 family, which are impacting the near-term delivery schedule for up to 100 jets.
In a parallel acknowledgment, CEO Guillaume Faury conceded that Boeing will likely record the highest number of net new orders in 2025. As of November, Boeing’s net order tally stands at 908, compared to 700 for Airbus. Faury attributed part of this divergence to geopolitical factors, noting that U.S. trade policy has accelerated orders for Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner.
Operational Strength Anchored by a Massive Backlog
Despite the shortfall in new orders, Airbus maintains a clear operational advantage in execution. The European manufacturer delivered 72 aircraft in November alone, significantly outpacing Boeing’s 44 deliveries. Year-to-date, Airbus has handed over 657 jets to customers, while its American rival has delivered 537.
Furthermore, Airbus’s order backlog provides substantial stability. The company’s total backlog comprises 8,695 aircraft, equivalent to roughly eleven years of production at current rates. Boeing’s backlog, by comparison, sits at 6,609 jets.
A positive development emerged from the crucial Chinese market, where Airbus has received regulatory clearance to deliver 120 already-ordered aircraft. This is a key step for cash flow and logistics, even though major new orders from the region have yet to materialize.
The Final Push and Broader Horizons
Market attention is now fixed on the year-end delivery sprint. With 657 aircraft delivered through November, Airbus must hand over approximately 133 units in December to meet its revised goal of 790—a potentially record-breaking performance for the final month.
Looking beyond commercial aviation, the defense division presents another focal point. The defense ministers of Germany, France, and Spain are in discussions regarding the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a critical next-generation program involving Airbus.
Currently, the share price reflects a company that is operationally stronger than its primary competitor but faces near-term constraints from supplier issues and shifting geopolitical trade patterns. A key question for observers is whether the supply chain challenges will be confined to the fourth quarter of 2025 or if they will threaten the planned production ramp-up scheduled for 2026.
