Observing Palantir trade has a peculiar quality. Even though the ticker is moving and the charts are flashing green, the discussion surrounding the company seems to be stuck in a loop from which it is unable to break free. PLTR surged past $150 once more on Wednesday, closing at $152.62 following a 4.56% increase. This move appears normal for a market darling on paper. However, the sounds that surround it convey a different message. According to one camp, the Pentagon’s nervous system is being subtly wired by a software juggernaut. As Michael Burry recently described it, the other sees a $365 billion consulting firm donning an AI hat. Each side seems persuaded in their own way.
A $300 million contract with the USDA, which was announced with the kind of low-key government press release that seldom affects markets, served as this week’s catalyst. However, this one did. The agreement, which entails safeguarding agricultural supply chains and updating the agency’s data systems, feels like another brick in the wall. For years, Palantir has been expanding, gradually moving away from the defense contracts that used to define it. It’s the kind of victory that Microsoft or Oracle would hardly notice. It is more significant to Palantir because it implies that the company’s strategy continues to function off the battlefield.
To be honest, it’s difficult to dispute the numbers. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 was $1.406 billion, up 70% from the previous year, with an incredible 137% increase in U.S. commercial revenue. During the earnings call, Karp, who is never one to undersell a quarter, talked candidly about a “Rule of 127” that combines profitability and growth, a play on the previous Rule of 40. This is one of the few enterprise software companies reporting triple-digit segment growth while generating $791 million in free cash flow each quarter, regardless of whether that is a true metric or just Karp being Karp.
Nevertheless, the skepticism persists. There isn’t much room for bad news when the P/E ratio is 240. Mizuho lowered its price target due to concerns about valuation, which is analyst code for “we love the business but can’t justify the multiple anymore.” Value investors believe Palantir’s scaling economics resemble a services company rather than a pure software play; Burry made this point loud enough for it to become its own meme. It’s difficult to ignore how personal the argument has become as you watch the back-and-forth on Reddit and X. PLTR is not the only topic on which people disagree. They don’t seem to like one another because they disagree.
Meanwhile, Karp continues to fuel the flames. Palantir released a 22-point synopsis of his book The Technological Republic over the weekend. It covered everything from Silicon Valley’s moral failings to, more controversially, the reinstatement of a military draft. It was dubbed brilliant by some. It was described as unsettling by others. In any case, it serves as a reminder that neither Palantir nor Karp function like typical businesses or CEOs. That has always been a component of both the risk and the appeal.
It’s really unclear where the stock will go from here. The upcoming May 4 earnings call will be significant. Investors seem to think Palantir is in a unique position to benefit from the Pentagon’s $1.5 trillion defense budget. Three years ago, I would have been hesitant to say that a data-analytics company would be trading at these multiples on the strength of military software and farming contracts. Palantir simply seems to be Palantir these days.
