The way Marvell Technology handled the POET situation was almost surgical. A partnership that POET’s CFO had been publicly celebrating a few days prior was abruptly terminated with a single written notice on April 23. In a single session, POET stock fell 47%. For its part, Marvell’s stock fell 3.71% to $158.21. While it was a poor day on paper, the company is still up 76.6% so far this year. The majority of what you need to know about the AI semiconductor pecking order in 2026 can be found in that contrast.
A Stocktwits TV interview served as the catalyst. The CFO of POET, Thomas Mika, took a seat and made it known that his company was providing Marvell with high-bandwidth light sources via the Celestial AI division that Marvell had recently purchased in February. He went into detail about the GPU-to-GPU communication, the photonic fabric, and the possibility that the order size would surpass the $5 million figure that had been previously revealed. POET’s stock more than doubled. Then Marvell canceled everything, citing a violation of the NDA’s confidentiality clause related to those purchase orders. Everything. including the April 2023-dated initial Celestial AI orders.
Some Stocktwits retail traders don’t believe the breach explanation to be the true motivation. The theory that is circulating is more straightforward and, to be honest, more difficult to reject: Marvell purchased Celestial AI in order to acquire optical interconnect technology internally, and the NDA violation allowed them to avoid paying a third-party supplier. It’s really unclear if that’s true. However, it’s the kind of action that fits the larger pattern. Both Nvidia and Broadcom are creating silicon photonics internally. Businesses that own their entire stack rather than renting it are increasingly the ones that emerge victorious in the race for AI infrastructure.
The intriguing thing about Marvell’s stock performance during all of this is how unconcerned it initially appears to be. With $2.22 billion in revenue, up 22% year over year, the company exceeded Q4 FY2026 projections. Over the past year, it recorded 35 distinct moves larger than 5%, indicating that volatility is inherent in this name. Marvell surged 6.9% a week prior to the POET drama due to rumors that it was in discussions with Google to jointly develop two custom AI chips. The bigger picture is the Google angle. The durable margin is found in custom silicon for hyperscalers, and Marvell has been establishing a presence there for years thanks to its partnerships with AWS, Microsoft, and, most recently, Google.
However, it’s difficult to ignore the fact that the stock is beginning to collide with a wall. Days before the POET announcement, on April 24, the 52-week high of $163.45 was reached. A $170 resistance level has been identified by some technical analysts as a barrier that bulls must successfully cross before the next leg up. For an AI-exposed semi-name in this market, the P/E ratio of 51.53 isn’t outrageous, but it’s also not inexpensive. Investors appear to think there are still years left in the AI capital expenditure cycle. The real open question is whether that conviction will endure the upcoming earnings season, which Marvell reports on June 4.
On a weeknight, you can walk through the parking lot at Marvell’s Santa Clara campus and see that the engineering buildings’ lights are still on long after nine o’clock. That’s how a business in scale-up mode feels. Matt Murphy has been discreetly putting together a bigger play since 2018, which includes the Celestial AI acquisition, the Google chip rumors, and the purposeful move to consolidate optical interconnect IP. In that regard, the POET cancellation isn’t truly a pivot. It’s housekeeping. Ensure that all strategic technology is housed in one location, file the necessary legal notice, and allow the small supplier to determine the next course of action.
As this develops, it seems like Marvell stock is in one of those stages where the market isn’t quite sure what narrative to tell about it yet. Is it the rich-but-deserved pure-play AI infrastructure? Or is it a chipmaker that used a sentence in an NDA to make a rival vanish? The two stories are operating simultaneously. The next move on the chart will be determined by the investors’ choice by June.
