Longtime Tesla investors share a story with one another, usually with a half-smile: they bought early, sweated through the 2018 production hell, rode the 2020 ascent, and then woke up in 2026 to discover the conversation had completely changed. The automaker they supported is no longer promoting itself as a car manufacturer. Robots are being pitched. as well as robotaxis. Gigawatts of solar power as well. Depending on how long a person has owned the stock, it can be either thrilling or draining.
In 2026, Tesla’s revenue fell 2.9% year over year, which is a figure that doesn’t seem dire on its own. Many established businesses post worse. However, Tesla has never been regarded as an established business. It has been regarded as a promise. Additionally, promises are sometimes brutally repriced in public, as anyone who has held TSLA through its more severe drawdowns knows. In just the last year, the stock has gone from $273 to almost $499, which speaks volumes about conviction levels—or lack thereof.
A split that didn’t exist a few years ago becomes apparent when you browse the comment threads on r/TSLA or r/teslainvestorsclub. The believers are still there. They are still there, discussing Optimus, the eventual development of fully autonomous vehicles, and Musk’s proposal to add 100 gigawatts of solar power to power AI infrastructure. If Tesla emerges as the top solar manufacturer in the United States, Morgan Stanley projects an upside of about $190 billion. That is a substantial amount. It’s just a figure that’s connected to numerous “ifs.”
Meanwhile, the skeptics have been honing their pencils. They examine the price-to-earnings ratio, which ranges from 300 to 400 depending on the quarter, and contrast it with Toyota’s, which is in the single digits. They take a look at Ford, which has gained 8.43% so far this year thanks to a strategy that doesn’t rely on humanoid robots showing up on time. It’s difficult to ignore the fact that some of the most vocal long-term holders have begun discussing why they sold rather than why they purchased. Earlier this year, a Reddit post titled “I Finally Sold My Tesla Shares” encapsulated something true: the company that people initially invested in isn’t exactly the one they now own.
That includes capital demands. Over the next several years, Tesla plans to invest between $30 and $70 billion in factories, chips, AI infrastructure, and robot manufacturing. With a $40 billion war chest—more cushion than most American manufacturers could hope for—the company is still cash-flow positive. But it’s a difficult task to increase margins while simultaneously constructing four distinct futures. Musk himself described Cybercab’s production as “agonizingly slow,” which is not the kind of statement that soothes a nervous investor base.
Nevertheless, Tesla continues to do things that no one else in the industry is doing, and this is what prevents the long-term thesis from completely collapsing. The gigafactory in Shanghai is booming. Sales in China increased. WattEV recently placed a $100 million order with the semi truck. Employees still pass rows of completed cars waiting to be shipped outside the Fremont factory; this is the same scene from fifteen years ago, when the business was allegedly just weeks away from going bankrupt. As this develops, it seems as though Tesla has been written off so frequently that it is practically cliched to write it off once more.
Regarding a long-term Tesla investment in 2026, the truth is that no one can say for sure. Either this is the most ambitious, vertically integrated technology bet of the decade, or it’s a cleverly marketed automaker that has run out of space to expand and is now selling visions to buy time, according to investors. Which version comes to pass is still up for debate. For a while, both may be true. There is no doubt that it has never been comfortable to hold this stock and most likely never will be.
