The Lucid showroom in Newark is located in an area of California that doesn’t seem all that futuristic. Gray light, low-slung buildings, a parking lot with a few Airs parked close to the entrance. It’s odd for a company that was being considered as the next Tesla not too long ago, but there’s something almost quiet about the place. These days, the atmosphere surrounding the stock reflects that peculiarity. Even though Lucid’s price is closer to a penny stock than a luxury carmaker at $6.34, its executives continue to discuss 2027 in a manner akin to discussing a delayed flight that has finally been confirmed for tomorrow morning.
It’s difficult to ignore how much this has decreased. A $10,000 wager made at the peak in February 2021 would be worth about $120 today—a figure that, at first glance, almost seems like a typo. Investors who persevered through the SPAC frenzy, production failures, analyst downgrades, and constant dilution have witnessed an almost complete collapse of equity value. The stock is still alive. That’s what keeps grabbing my interest.
When the first-quarter figures were released on May 5, they simultaneously told two stories. It sounds truly impressive that production increased by 149% year over year to 5,500 vehicles, but only 3,093 were delivered. Completed cars piled up during a 29-day stop-sale on the Gravity SUV, which was caused by a supplier problem with second-row seat belt anchor welds. Revenue of $282.5 million fell well short of Wall Street’s $358 million forecast. The net loss increased to about $1 billion. To be honest, I had to read the gross margin figure twice because it was negative 110%. Every vehicle the company manufactures results in a loss.
Bulls believe that this is the bottom, or very near it. Lucid was recently moved from Sell to Hold by Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who has never been particularly gentle when it comes to EV names. Jonas cited a more balanced risk-reward ratio as well as the “embodied AI theme.” Conversely, TD Cowen reduced its target from $10 to $7. The split seems symbolic. No one seems prepared to write the obituary, but no one is completely convinced either.
Uber and Saudi Arabia are the main causes of that reluctance. More than half of the company is owned by the Saudi Public Investment Fund, which has demonstrated a willingness to continue writing checks that would terrify a traditional shareholder base. It’s worth taking a moment to consider how the Uber deal, which was extended in April to $500 million and a commitment for up to 35,000 vehicles, has changed the story. Lucid is no longer limited to selling pricey sedans to affluent early adopters. With Nuro managing the self-driving stack and a commercial launch scheduled for late 2026 in the Bay Area, it is attempting to become a fleet supplier for autonomous ride-hailing.
I’m constantly debating whether that’s sufficient to support the current price. The real swing factor is the Midsize platform, which is expected to launch in 2027 for less than $50,000. The math is different if it lands at scale and on time. The dilution conversation becomes more difficult to avoid if it slips, as this company’s history indicates it might. There’s a sense that Lucid is quietly competing against its own financial expenditures, and the finish line keeps getting closer.
The factories continue to operate, the stock is currently close to its 52-week low, and those who are keeping a close eye on this appear to be waiting for a solid quarter to determine whether the story will ultimately turn around. It still hasn’t arrived.
