While facing sales pressure in its home market, Chinese electric vehicle (EV) titan BYD is receiving a vote of confidence from analysts who point to its burgeoning international operations as a potential counterbalance. A recent research note from investment bank Jefferies has provided fresh optimism, highlighting the company’s overseas strategy and upgrading its outlook. The central question for investors is whether export growth can effectively neutralize domestic challenges.
International Sales Surge as a Counterweight
The hopes for BYD’s near-term performance are increasingly pinned on its performance outside China. Jefferies forecasts the company will export 1.5 million vehicles in the current year, representing a substantial 43% year-over-year increase. This expansion is viewed as critical. In China, BYD’s market share recently contracted from 34% to 27%, with January 2026 sales volumes dropping by approximately 30%.
Europe, particularly Germany, presents a starkly different narrative. There, BYD’s sales skyrocketed in January 2026, with 2,629 units sold—a staggering increase of over 1,000% compared to the same month a year prior. This performance allowed the Chinese automaker to outpace its American rival Tesla in several European regions where the latter has reported declining volumes.
Analyst Perspective: A Floor May Be Forming
Market experts at Jefferies have adjusted their stance on BYD’s equity. They raised their price target for the Hong Kong-listed H-shares to 105 HKD and upgraded their rating on the A-shares to “Hold.” The analysis suggests that the stock’s recent correction of around 40% has largely accounted for existing risks.
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Concurrently, the bank revised its net profit projections downward to 33 billion RMB for 2025 and 40 billion RMB for 2026. However, the focus is shifting toward future catalysts. Analysts have identified a key upcoming event: the anticipated “Tech Day” slated for late February or early March 2026. This presentation is expected to showcase next-generation technologies that could stimulate new consumer demand.
Aligning Product and Infrastructure for Global Growth
Supporting its export-driven strategy, BYD has unveiled an updated model for the Australian market: the Atto 3 Evo. This refresh of one of its top-selling global vehicles introduces an 800-volt architecture, significantly reducing charging durations. The company claims the battery can now charge from 10% to 80% capacity in just 25 minutes.
To logistically support this international scaling, BYD is planning considerable infrastructure investments. Reports indicate plans to expand its German dealership network from 120 to 300 locations. Furthermore, starting in spring 2026, the company intends to roll out its “Megawatt Flash Charging” technology, which is designed to deliver charging power of up to 1,000 kW.
The Road Ahead
The coming weeks will be telling for BYD’s strategic direction. Investors are keenly awaiting the late-February “Tech Day,” which should provide deeper insights into the long-term product roadmap. The enduring challenge for the share price will be whether the impressive growth rates in international markets can sustainably compensate for the margin pressures within its core Chinese business.
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