While facing significant industry pressures, Deere & Company’s stock has demonstrated notable resilience in recent trading sessions. The agricultural machinery giant is preparing for what it terms the “trough year” of the major equipment cycle in 2026. Concurrently, the company is aggressively expanding its technological portfolio, aiming to generate more stable, high-margin revenue streams. The central question for investors is whether this innovation drive can effectively counterbalance cyclical downturns and rising labor costs.
Financial Performance and Key Metrics
Deere’s shares have significantly outpaced the broader market. Over a one-month period, the stock advanced 9.7%, starkly contrasting with the S&P 500’s modest 0.2% gain. The 90-day return stands at approximately 11.24%. For the current quarter, earnings per share are anticipated to be around $1.92, with the stock recently trading near $514.40.
Looking ahead to fiscal year 2026, net profit is projected to fall between $4.0 billion and $4.75 billion. A major factor impacting this outlook is an estimated $1.2 billion in increased labor costs from new union contracts.
Leadership Transition and Capital Discipline
A recent management shift has placed investor focus on financial stewardship. CFO Joshua Jepsen has announced his departure, with Ryan D. Campbell stepping in as the interim finance chief. Company leadership has clarified that this change is unrelated to any financial or operational disputes. Nevertheless, the transition occurs at a critical juncture where capital allocation and stringent cost control are paramount. The search for a permanent successor will be closely watched, as it will influence the company’s future financial planning and strategic priorities.
Segment Outlook and Cost Mitigation
The company anticipates a substantial decline in its core North American large agriculture equipment segment, with sales forecast to drop 15–20% in 2026. This cyclical downturn is expected to be partially offset by growth of roughly 10% in each of the Small Agriculture & Turf and Construction & Forestry divisions. While this product mix softens the overall blow, margin pressure persists.
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To combat the $1.2 billion contractual labor cost increase, management has outlined a mitigation strategy. This plan includes price adjustments on equipment of about 1.5% and ongoing reductions in material expenses.
Technology as a Counter-Cyclical Engine
Deere is betting heavily on autonomous and precision technology to drive future profitability. Its latest innovations in tillage and soil management, such as high-speed discs and expanded autonomy-ready options for rippers and field cultivators, are key examples. The company’s See & Spray technology has already been deployed across more than 5 million acres.
The strategic goal is to build a larger base of recurring, high-margin revenue from software subscriptions and data services. The extent to which these new income sources can compensate for weakness in large equipment sales and related manufacturing adjustments will hinge on market adoption rates and the effectiveness of Deere’s monetization strategies.
Investment Thesis
Deere presents a complex picture: it is managing short-term cyclical pressures and rising fixed costs while simultaneously executing a clear technology roadmap and fostering moderate growth in secondary business lines. The critical factor for the stock’s trajectory will be the company’s ability to use pricing power, material cost savings, and expanding tech-based recurring revenue to cushion the anticipated downturn in its large equipment operations.
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