While Tesla’s core automotive business shows clear signs of contraction, its share price tells a different story. The market’s focus is undergoing a fundamental shift, moving away from vehicle delivery counts and toward the company’s potential in energy infrastructure and autonomous systems. This strategic pivot is driving a significant re-rating of the electric vehicle pioneer’s stock.
A Cooling Core Business, Yet Market Relief
Recent delivery figures underscore a notable slowdown in Tesla’s traditional operations. The data reveals a pronounced dip:
- Fourth Quarter 2025: The company delivered just 418,227 vehicles, representing a year-over-year decline of 16%.
- Full Year 2025: Total deliveries reached 1.63 million units, a 9% decrease compared to the previous year.
For a growth stock of Tesla’s magnitude, these numbers constitute a meaningful setback. However, the market reaction has been relatively muted. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives characterized the results as “better than feared,” suggesting that many investors had already priced in a more severe demand slump and were anticipating weaker data.
The New Catalysts: Energy Storage and Autonomy
The current revaluation is being fueled not by cars, but by two key developments outside the core auto segment.
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- Record Energy Storage Deployment: Tesla’s energy storage business achieved a new record in Q4 2025, deploying approximately 14.2 gigawatt-hours. This high-margin, scalable segment is increasingly seen as a potential counterbalance to the softer profitability in the automotive division.
- Robotaxi Milestone: CEO Elon Musk confirmed that driverless robotaxis are now being tested in Austin without a safety driver behind the wheel. The market views concrete testing without a backup human as a critical milestone for the Full-Self-Driving (FSD) system. This development has reinvigorated enthusiasm around Tesla’s artificial intelligence capabilities, leading many investors to assign greater value to its software and autonomy platform.
Despite trading slightly below the previous day’s close at around $436, the stock remains comfortably above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. This technical position reinforces that a medium-term upward trend persists, even in the face of recent automotive weakness.
Analyst Upgrades Reflect a Changing Narrative
This altered perspective is clearly visible in recent analyst research, where price targets are being revised upward based on new growth pillars.
- Stifel raised its price target to $508, citing rapid progress on FSD and the development of a robotaxi fleet. The firm believes the value of Tesla’s software and autonomy platform is expanding faster than pure delivery numbers would indicate.
- Bank of America now estimates that robotaxis and the humanoid “Optimus” robot together account for nearly 45% of Tesla’s total valuation. This highlights the substantial weight the market is placing on future cash flows generated outside of manufacturing and selling electric vehicles.
Concurrently, traditional EV sales face persistent pressure from intense competition and expiring subsidies. This reality prevents Tesla from being defined solely by unit volume. Instead, the “AI thesis” is moving to the forefront, forming what many investors see as a new valuation floor.
Conclusion: Strategic Pivot Overcomes Cyclical Weakness
In summary, the market is rewarding strategic direction over current delivery metrics. The challenges in the auto business are evident but are being overshadowed by robust energy storage performance and tangible advances in autonomous driving. Analysts are lifting their price targets primarily on the promise of software, robotaxis, and robotics, while the classic vehicle operation’s role in the investment story diminishes. The key question for Tesla’s future trajectory is whether it can substantiate the high expectations for margins and growth in energy and autonomy with further concrete milestones in the coming quarters.
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