You wouldn’t know that one of the most important choices in contemporary American defense was being discreetly made inside Boeing’s Phantom Works in St. Louis last winter if you were standing outside. The parking lot appeared unremarkable. A few workers entered with coffee in their hands. Engineers were starting to bend metal on what the Pentagon claims will be the backbone of American air superiority for the next 20 years somewhere behind those walls.
To put it plainly, the contract that led them there was a winner-take-all battle. Regarding the Next Generation Air Dominance program, Boeing and Lockheed Martin had been circling one another for years. Everyone in the industry took Northrop Grumman’s 2023 exit as a sign that the financial risk was just too high. The announcement of the new fighter, dubbed the F-47, on March 21, 2025, with Trump in the White House and Hegseth by his side, did more than just give Boeing more than $20 billion in development funding. It provided a lifeline for the business.
It’s difficult to use a softer word when considering Boeing’s defense business over the past few years. A company that once defined American aerospace has seen a gradual decline in trust as a result of the 737 MAX scandal, the Starliner issues, and the tanker program losses. None of that is eliminated by winning NGAD. However, it does buy time, and time is crucial when it comes to defense.
The answer from Lockheed Martin was instructive. It was a brief, almost stoic statement. Though disappointed, they were confident in their bid. At least not at first, no protest was filed. Those who have followed these competitions for years feel that Lockheed already has the F-35 production line running smoothly and the Skunk Works portfolio to rely on. Nevertheless, losing NGAD is not insignificant. Since the F-22 came off the assembly line, Lockheed has worn the air superiority crown.
The F-47 itself is currently more of an idea than an aircraft. According to the Air Force, two competitive prototypes have reportedly been in flight since 2020, accumulating hundreds of hours under such strict classification that the public renderings have been purposefully altered. Prior to retiring late last year, General David Allvin pledged to make his first flight by 2028. For a program that, by mid-2024, had skyrocketed to a projected unit cost three times that of an F-35, pushing individual aircraft toward the $300 million range, that is an ambitious timeline. That May, Frank Kendall put a halt to everything. The extent to which that cost issue has been resolved as opposed to postponed is still unknown.
What the F-47 is meant to be is what sets this contract apart from previous fighter awards. Not merely a stealth aircraft. A flying command node that will expand its reach by connecting to satellites, electronic warfare suites, and a fleet of cooperative combat aircraft, including drone wingmen manufactured by General Atomics and Anduril. Each F-47 has two CCAs, and each F-35A has two more. That math grows quickly.
The China issue is another issue that permeates all discussions regarding this program. No one in Washington missed the timing when Beijing unveiled two stealth prototypes in December 2024. Allowing the B-21 to enter hostile airspace without a sixth-generation escort, according to an Air Force veteran on a Mitchell Institute podcast, would be “absolutely catastrophic.” People who sincerely think a delay could result in fatalities use language like that.
Boeing must now make a delivery. Doug Birkey of the Mitchell Institute noted that all three primes—Lockheed with the F-35, Northrop with the B-21, and Boeing with the F-47—benefit the defense industrial base. That seems like healthy competition on paper. In reality, it places a great deal of strain on a business that hasn’t always been able to handle pressure well.
The price tag and the politics don’t stick out when you watch this play out. It’s the distance between the runway and the rendering. The contract is with Boeing. The question that will determine the course of the next ten years is whether they can construct the aircraft.
