Tesla’s ambitious valuation is confronting a stark reality check. A sustained sales slump in a critical market, a retreat by major institutional investors, and significant delays in its flagship autonomous driving initiative are converging to increase pressure on the electric vehicle pioneer. Recent data paints a challenging picture for the company’s near-term trajectory.
Institutional Confidence Wanes
Regulatory filings from the fourth quarter of 2025 reveal a substantial pullback by several prominent investment firms. UBS Asset Management divested approximately 59 million shares, slashing its position by 74%. The drawdown was even more pronounced at Nomura, which reduced its holdings by over 80%. Goldman Sachs sold 2.4 million Tesla titles, while Morgan Stanley continued its selling streak for a third consecutive quarter.
This exodus stands in contrast to the activity of retail investors. In the week of February 12 to 18 alone, Tesla shares saw inflows of $326 million, ranking fourth behind giants like Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft in retail interest.
European Market Share Erodes for Over a Year
The company’s challenges are particularly acute in Europe. January 2026 saw only 8,075 new Tesla vehicle registrations across the continent, representing a 17% year-over-year decline. According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), this marks the thirteenth consecutive month of falling sales. Tesla’s market share consequently dipped from 1.0% to 0.8%.
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The situation is exacerbated by the explosive growth of Chinese competitors in the same market. BYD boosted its new registrations by 165% to 18,242 vehicles, effectively doubling its market share to 1.9%. Market experts attribute this shift to a structural cost advantage held by Chinese manufacturers, a gap they believe will persist for years to come.
Autonomous Driving Ambitions Stumble
The robotaxi program, a cornerstone of Tesla’s premium valuation, is facing operational and regulatory hurdles. Since the launch of its robotaxi fleet in Austin in June 2025, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has recorded 14 accidents. Five of those incidents occurred between December 2025 and January 2026 alone. Statistically, this equates to one accident every 57,000 miles, compared to one every 229,000 miles for the average U.S. driver.
The fleet’s scale has also fallen short of initial targets. Currently, it consists of roughly 42 vehicles in Austin, with less than 20% available during operational hours. CEO Elon Musk had previously announced goals of 500 vehicles in Austin by the end of 2025 and an expansion into eight to ten additional cities—neither of which has materialized. Furthermore, in California, Tesla is entangled in a regulatory dispute with Waymo and is contesting a proposed ban on the use of terms like “driverless” and “robotaxi” in advertising.
Lofty Valuation Meets Ground-Level Challenges
Despite these headwinds, Tesla’s valuation remains steep, with a forward P/E ratio of approximately 199 for 2026 and a market capitalization hovering around $1.5 trillion. This pricing continues to embed expectations for massive future growth. The company has outlined plans for over $20 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, targeting new factories and AI infrastructure. Whether these substantial investments can deliver the anticipated breakthroughs will become clearer in upcoming quarters, but current data is sowing seeds of doubt among observers.
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