The Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD is facing a severe demand contraction, with its stock price reflecting growing investor concern. The company’s sales figures for January revealed a decline of over 30% year-over-year, marking the fifth consecutive monthly drop. This performance has contributed to a weekly share price loss of approximately 7%.
Key January Performance Metrics
- Total Vehicle Sales: 210,051 units (a 30.1% decrease compared to January 2025)
- Pure Electric Vehicles (BEVs): 83,249 units (the lowest monthly figure since February 2024)
- Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs): Down 28.5% year-over-year
- Export Volume: 100,482 vehicles (a decline from 133,172 units in December)
Intensifying Competitive and Regulatory Headwinds
Market analysts point to a rapidly shifting competitive landscape as a primary challenge. Rival automaker Geely sold over 270,000 vehicles in January, significantly outpacing BYD. Other competitors also posted strong gains: Aito, which utilizes Huawei’s operating system, saw deliveries surge over 80% to more than 40,000 units, while Leapmotor’s deliveries increased 27% to 32,059. Nio reported 27,182 deliveries for the month.
“Companies like Geely with its Xingyuan [Galaxy EV] have captured significant market share in the lower-priced segment—exactly where BYD has traditionally been strong,” Tu Le, founder of consultancy Sino Auto Insights, told CNBC.
Compounding the competitive pressure is a new government policy. As of January 1, 2026, a 5% purchase tax has been reinstated on electric vehicles, ending a more than decade-long exemption from the full 10% vehicle tax. This policy shift disproportionately affects affordable models, which constitute BYD’s core market segment.
Market Valuation and Core Business Concerns
The company’s Hong Kong-listed shares have shed over $60 billion in market capitalization since May 2025. On Monday, February 2, the stock price hit its lowest level in at least 16 months, with the recent weekly decline extending the downward trend.
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The performance of BYD’s pure battery-electric vehicles, which fell to 83,249 units sold, is viewed as a particular warning signal for the company’s core business. Plug-in hybrids, which typically account for more than half of total deliveries, also contracted by 28.5%.
International Expansion Offers a Glimmer of Hope
Despite domestic struggles, BYD continues to advance its global expansion strategy. In Brazil, the company aims to source half of all vehicle components locally by the end of 2026. Its plant in Camacari has produced approximately 25,000 cars since October and employs around 5,000 workers.
For the full year 2026, BYD is targeting 1.3 million vehicle sales overseas, representing a 24% increase from its 2025 target. Management had initially aimed for up to 1.6 million units. In a positive sign, the company’s new vehicle registrations in Germany exploded by over 1,000% in January, albeit from a very low base.
A Critical Quarter Ahead
The first quarter of 2026 is expected to provide clearer insight into the depth of the demand crisis, though traditional distortions from the Lunar New Year holiday will affect January and February figures. In 2025, BYD sold a total of 4.56 million electric and hybrid vehicles. The conglomerate has not yet communicated a specific domestic sales target for 2026.
Industry observers remain cautious. “We see growing pressure on China’s auto market in 2026 from a combination of policy and competitive factors,” warned Helen Liu, a partner at Bain & Company.
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