Tesla’s latest US sales figures present a complex narrative for the electric vehicle leader. November 2025 saw the company’s deliveries in the region plummet to their lowest point in nearly four years, a direct consequence of the expiration of federal tax credits. Despite this operational setback, Tesla’s stock managed to close higher on Friday, prompting market observers to question whether investor fascination with artificial intelligence prospects is overshadowing fundamental challenges in the core automotive business.
Aggressive Incentives Deployed to Counteract Downturn
In a decisive move to stimulate demand following the subsidy withdrawal, Tesla’s management has launched its most extensive incentive campaign in years. For deliveries completed by December 31, 2025, the automaker is offering 0% financing for terms extending up to 72 months. Additionally, it has introduced zero-down-payment leasing options for the Model Y, signaling a clear push to clear inventory and bolster year-end figures.
A Market Share Gain Amidst a Broader Collapse
Data from Cox Automotive reveals that Tesla sold approximately 39,800 vehicles in the United States during November 2025. This represents a 23% decline compared to the same month last year and constitutes the weakest monthly performance since January 2022. The primary catalyst was the cessation of the $7,500 federal tax credit at the end of September, which had pulled significant demand forward into the third quarter.
However, context is crucial. While Tesla’s absolute numbers fell, the overall US EV market contracted by over 41%. Within this shrunken market, Tesla’s share of sales surged dramatically from 43.1% to 56.7%. Market analysts note that the loss of the subsidy is disproportionately affecting sales of Tesla’s standard models, potentially cannibalizing them in favor of higher-margin premium variants.
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Divergent Analyst Views Highlight a Valuation Crossroads
Wall Street’s interpretation of the disconnect between weak delivery data and a resilient share price is mixed. Barclays maintained its “Equal Weight” rating, offering a pragmatic view that current weak delivery figures hold little immediate relevance for the stock. The investment case, they suggest, has fundamentally shifted in focus.
In contrast, Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla shares from “Overweight” to “Equal Weight,” while paradoxically raising its price target slightly to $425. The firm’s new analyst, Andrew Percoco, cautioned that immense expectations surrounding Tesla’s AI ambitions have already stretched the valuation. This, he warns, elevates the risk of disappointment stemming from the operational auto business. Deutsche Bank remains more optimistic, reiterating a “Buy” recommendation with a $470 price target. Their thesis posits that investors will continue to overlook automotive sector weaknesses as long as macroeconomic conditions remain stable and the narrative around robotics and AI retains its potency.
The Road Ahead: Margins and Macro Decisions
Attention now turns to Europe, where anticipated decisions regarding a potential adjustment to the combustion-engine phase-out are expected tomorrow, Tuesday. The true litmus test, however, will arrive in late January 2026 with the quarterly earnings release. This report will reveal whether the aggressive discounting campaign has excessively pressured automotive margins and if Tesla can provide fundamental substantiation for the high expectations placed on its AI-driven future.
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