A wave of skepticism is washing over Tesla’s stock following its recent record performance. The electric vehicle maker is confronting a significant challenge in its core business, as multiple market analysts have sharply reduced their delivery forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2025. The expiration of key government tax credits is cited as the primary cause, creating an anticipated demand vacuum that overshadows ongoing investor enthusiasm for the company’s artificial intelligence and robotics narratives.
Revised Forecasts Signal a Sharp Slowdown
Wall Street’s revised projections paint a clear picture of expected deceleration. Consensus estimates now point to a notable quarterly decline in vehicle deliveries.
- Data from Bloomberg and FactSet suggests deliveries will land in the range of 448,000 to 450,000 units. This would represent a drop of approximately 9% to 10% from the prior quarter.
- A more pessimistic outlook comes from the closely-watched Troy Teslike tracker, which projects just 406,000 vehicles for the period—an 18% plunge.
The probability of Tesla achieving even 430,000 deliveries is currently viewed as low on prediction markets.
The Double-Edged Sword of a Record Quarter
Ironically, the current concerns are a direct consequence of Tesla’s own success. The company’s delivery peak in Q3 2025 was largely fueled by a surge of U.S. buyers rushing to secure expiring federal EV incentives. This “pull-forward” effect has now created a hangover, artificially shifting demand into the previous quarter and depleting the pool of likely buyers for the year’s final months. Market observers note what appears to be a vacuum in the order pipeline.
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Morgan Stanley Adopts a Cautious Stance
Aligning with this cautious sentiment, Morgan Stanley has downgraded its rating on Tesla. The investment bank shifted its view from “Overweight” to “Equal Weight.” Lead analyst Andrew Percoco explained the move as a reassessment of risks, acknowledging Tesla’s leadership in AI and robotics but noting that high expectations have already driven the valuation to a fair level.
Specifically, Morgan Stanley cut its volume expectations for 2026 by 10.5%, citing heightened global competition and a slower-than-anticipated rate of electric vehicle adoption in the United States.
The stock has reflected this gathering pressure. Trading recently around 382 euros, the shares have retreated significantly from their 52-week high of 457 euros, reached just in December.
Investor attention is now firmly fixed on the actual Q4 delivery figures, expected soon. Should the numbers meet or fall below the lower end of analyst estimates, the debate over Tesla’s valuation—torn between its automotive reality and its AI vision—is likely to intensify.
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