Tesla’s equity surged approximately 4% on Thursday, fueled by a significant policy shift in Washington. The rally followed reports that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick met with robotics industry CEOs and that the administration is preparing a substantial push to bolster the sector through an executive order. This governmental focus arrives as Tesla’s core electric vehicle business faces headwinds, raising the question: could the company’s “Optimus” humanoid robot project become its next major catalyst?
A Divided Street: Valuation Concerns Clash with Robotics Optimism
The market’s reaction highlights a deep divide among investors. On one side, proponents point to Tesla’s positioning within a newly prioritized industry. The U.S. Commerce Department confirmed that robotics and advanced manufacturing are central to plans for reshoring critical production. According to Politico, an executive order aimed at accelerating robotics innovation is slated for 2026, with the Department of Transportation set to establish a dedicated robotics task force before year’s end.
This aligns with Tesla’s ambitions for Optimus, a humanoid robot designed for manufacturing, service industries, and consumer markets, explicitly avoiding military or police applications. RBC Capital Markets reinforced its “Outperform” rating on Tesla with a $500 price target on Thursday, citing the company’s leadership potential in this emerging field.
However, prominent skeptic Michael Burry of “The Big Short” fame offers a stark counterpoint. In his newsletter, Cassandra Unchained, he labeled Tesla as “ridiculously overvalued.” He criticized its price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 298 (versus 23.5 for the S&P 500) and a price-to-sales ratio of 16 (compared to sub-1 figures for Toyota and GM). Burry also highlighted concerns over Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package, valued at one trillion dollars, which could lead to further shareholder dilution.
Analyst sentiment reflects this split. Of 44 firms surveyed, 9 recommend selling the stock, 13 advise holding, and 21 suggest buying. The average price target stands near $399, notably below the current trading level around $450.
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Core Automotive Business Shows Strain in Key Markets
While the robotics narrative provides excitement, Tesla’s primary automotive operations are displaying weakness in several major regions. U.S. deliveries for November totaled just 39,800 vehicles, marking the year’s softest month. Cumulative sales for the first eight months of 2025 lag the previous year’s figure by 24%, with approximately 10,800 vehicles reported as unsold inventory.
The picture in Europe is similarly challenging. France reported a 58% year-over-year decline in Tesla registrations for November, Denmark saw a 49% drop, and annual sales in Germany have nearly halved. In the UK, Tesla has warned policymakers that diluting zero-emission vehicle mandates would “suppress” the EV market.
China remains a notable bright spot. The company achieved a 10% sales increase there in November, delivering 86,700 units during a period when rival BYD’s sales contracted by 5.3%.
Diversification Efforts and the Road Ahead
In response to automotive volatility, Tesla is increasingly emphasizing its non-automotive segments. The company’s energy storage deployments reached 12.5 GWh of capacity in the third quarter. Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected around $9 billion, earmarked for Cybercab manufacturing, Semi truck production, and AI infrastructure. A more affordable “Model Q” is scheduled to enter series production starting in September.
The central investment thesis now hinges on whether the promise of robotics can offset demonstrable softness in the auto division. The upcoming quarterly earnings report on February 4, 2026, is anticipated to provide clearer insight into this balancing act.
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